On October 23, 2024, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported in its Regular Updates on Higher Education Enrollment an overall increase in enrollment from Fall 2023 to Fall 2024. What is significant is that this overall increase across all higher education sectors is a result of existing students’ persistence and improved retention, not new freshmen. In other words, since Fall 2023, there has been a decline in freshmen enrollment, particularly in the 18- to 20-year-old age group. The good news for community colleges is that, unlike its other counterparts in the higher education space, public 2-year and Primarily Associate–Degree Granting Baccalaureate (PAB) institutions with a high percentage of Pell Grant recipients did see an increase in freshmen enrollment. This increase is especially seen among freshmen enrolling as part-time students in public 2-year and PAB institutions.
While enrollment shows an overall increase for all institution types from last year to this year, we must bear in mind that for the last decade college enrollment has seen a steady decline. Higher education leaders hope that 2024 marks a reverse in that trend, as the National Center for Education Statistics is projecting a gradual increase in enrollment into 2031.
FAFSA Fiasco & Its Impact on Enrollment
After four rounds of Beta testing, the Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid (FSA) was able to release a successful 2025-2026 Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form on November 21, 2024, ten days before the expected release announced earlier this year. This successful launch does not erase the challenges FSA faced in launching the 2024-2025 FAFSA form and begs the question how does enrollment decline among college freshmen layer with the problems with modernizing the FAFSA form during the 2024-2025 cycle?
The review of the tumultuous new FAFSA form’s contribution to the freshmen decline in enrollment is mixed. Dr. Doug Shapiro, the executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) stated that the Fall 2024 enrollment data do not address the question of the 2024-2025 FAFSA form’s role in the decline of freshmen enrollment. On the other hand, Bill De Baun from the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) has said early into the FAFSA rollout that this disaster would impact enrollment rates.
Yet, the NSCRC data do present an interesting trend. In Fall 2023, there was an increase in freshmen enrollment across all types of institutions of higher education and across institutions with high, medium, and low percent of Pell Grant recipients. However, in Fall 2024 the trend has mostly reversed. The freshmen enrollment decline is seen nearly across all types of institutions of higher education and across institutions with a high, medium, and low percent of Pell Grant recipients. The greatest magnitude in freshmen enrollment declines is seen in public and private 4-year institutions with a high percentage of Pell-eligible students. In other words, 4-year institutions with a high share of low-income prospective students had a greater decline in freshmen enrollment.
Two-year and PAB institutions with a high percentage of Pell-eligible students show a different pattern from their 4-year counterparts. In this case, we can see a 1 percent increase in freshmen enrollment. At face value, we could argue that low-income students who would have attended public and private 4-year institutions have instead opted to enroll in community colleges. Yet, when we look closer, we learn that this increase of freshmen in 2-year and PAB institutions is among freshmen enrolling part-time, while there is a decline in freshmen enrolling in full-time programs.
So, where are these high school graduates going if they’re not enrolling full-time?
When we compare the 2023 high school graduating class to 2024, the completion rate of the 2024-2025 FAFSA is nearly 54 percent, almost a 9 percent decrease from the previous year’s completion rate.
When putting this information together, a possible narrative can be that the freshmen class of 2024 is not filling out the FAFSA, and instead may be pursuing other pathways such as entering the workforce or they are at least not making postsecondary education their main activity. For instance, they might instead opt for certificate programs. The NSCRC’s 2024 report on certificate earners states that more students than in the past decade have earned a certificate; specifically, in the 2022-2023 academic year, 18-20 year olds were the largest portion of certificate earners.
In terms of entering the labor market, a study by the Pew Research Center highlights that over the past decade, young adults without college degrees are experiencing better economic outcomes. This study has also found that 29 percent of survey respondents do not consider the cost of education an investment worth making. And, almost half of respondents said that today it is less important to have a four-year degree for a good paying job than it was 20 years ago. This sentiment would make the decision to enroll in a postsecondary institution full-time less attractive, but earing certificates to supplement their employment more attractive.
What Does Enrollment Look Like for Community Colleges?
When we zoom in and look at trends at the community college level, we can see a story that differs from the overall environment in higher education. Unlike its 4-year counterparts, Fall 2024 freshmen enrollment at community colleges has seen an increase; particularly in their part-time programs. This increase in part-time enrollment is most likely from freshmen in the 21 and older age group.
Furthermore, the community college enrollment picture is not complete without looking at dual enrollment, a student enrollment type that is mostly unique to community colleges in which secondary students are enrolled in college course in tandem with their high school classes. Dual enrollment data show that 30 states have 20 percent or higher of high school students who are dual enrolled at community colleges. Notably, Idaho and Indiana both have over 50 percent of their community college population consisting of dual enrollment students. In the past decade, the number of dual enrollment students have nearly doubled. These dual enrollments are associated with a higher likelihood of attending and completing a college or university program post high school graduation; with a higher chance that they would enroll at the community college after their dual enrollment experience.
Finally, while not often discussed, since 2022, international student enrollment has been increasing at community colleges. Data of international student enrollment for the 2023-2024 academic year show that community colleges saw an 8.3 increase, while freshmen enrollment at 4-year colleges and universities had a decline of 0.4 percent. These numbers should be considered with caution as we still await data that represents 2024-2025 enrollment trends disaggregated by academic level. In the meantime, we know that for Fall 2024, community colleges had a 9 percent increase, while baccalaureate colleges saw a 3 percent increase in enrollment. This is all to say that it is not necessarily useful to apply surface level enrollment trends to understand what is happening at community colleges.
Conclusion
Again, enrollment in postsecondary education has seen an overall increase from Fall 2023 to Fall 2024 but with a marked decrease in freshmen enrollment. While it appears that the lower rate of the FAFSA form submission contributed to a decline in freshmen enrolling at a college or university, there are also prevailing long-term factors that are driving these outcomes such as the rise in the cost of college, better economic outcomes for those without a college degree, and more options post high school completion found in certificate programs and micro-credentials.
Community colleges, in particular, are experiencing enrollment trends that do not fully mimic their 4-year counterparts and instead are seeing increases in a variety of populations such as students older than 21, part-time, dual enrollment, and international students. Given the compatibility between community colleges and what consumers in the higher education market are looking for: flexibility, short-term and certificate programs, and education at a lower cost, there is reason to believe that for the foreseeable future community colleges can work to insulate themselves from enrollment downturns.
Génesis Santiago Santiago is the Senior Government Relations Associate at ACCT
Photo Credit: Stanley Morales, https://www.pexels.com/@expressivestanley/
