On October 23, 2024, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) reported in its Regular Updates on Higher Education Enrollment an overall increase in enrollment from Fall 2023 to Fall 2024. This report depicted these increases as a result of student retention rather than new enrollment from the freshman class. Specifically, this report outlined a decrease in freshmen enrollment in the 18–20-year-old age group from Fall 2023 to Fall 2024 for four-year public, nonprofit private, and for-profit private institutions. The data indicated that two-year and Primarily Associate-Degree Granting Baccalaureate (PAB) institutions saw an increase in freshmen enrolling as part-time students. It was based on these findings that ACCT published its initial analysis of enrollment trends among community colleges.

On January 13, 2025, the NSCRC made a public statement indicating that freshmen enrollment rates did increase across the various sectors and the miscalculations in their initial findings were a result of incorrectly mislabeling freshmen as dual-enrolled students.

With this latest information, the question is what is the latest reality for community colleges[1] in terms of enrollment?

Overall Findings

NSCRC’s Current Term Enrollment Estimates: Fall 2024 published on January 23, 2025 incorporates a more thorough dataset than the earlier fall estimates report. According to this current report, all types of institutions saw an overall increase in undergraduate enrollment. As figure 1.4 demonstrates, community colleges did have a notable increase of nearly 6 percent, which is greater than that of public four-year and private nonprofit four-year institutions whose enrollment increase was 3.2 and 4.4 percent respectively.

Post-Pandemic Recovery

Even with increases in undergraduate enrollment since Fall 2022, community colleges have not fully rebounded to reflect 2019 Pre-Pandemic enrollment levels. However, it is worth noting that two-year institutions and PABs are seeing greater undergraduate growth than their counterparts even if they are currently just shy of being at Pre-Pandemic enrollment levels. Moreover, public two-year institutions and PABs started seeing post-pandemic enrollment increases in 2022, a year before four-year public and nonprofit privates experienced their own enrollment growth.  

Furthermore, when we look deeper, part-time undergraduate enrollment in two-year institutions started increasing in Fall 2022, while the increasing enrollment trend for full-time enrollment at two-year institutions began in Fall 2023. Therefore, as figure 3.2 below indicates, two-year institutions began pandemic enrollment recovery sooner than their four-year public and nonprofit counterparts due mainly to their recovery in part-time enrollment.

Freshmen Enrollment

With freshmen in particular, the overall increase was 5.5 percent, yet community colleges saw a 7 percent increase, signaling stronger freshmen enrollment in these institutions compared to their public and private nonprofit four-year counterparts.

When looking deeper, Fall 2024 18-year-old freshmen enrollment increased by 3.4 percent across all institutions, while PAB and two-year institution enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen grew by 7.7 and 5 percent respectively. Community colleges stood out in their 18-year-old freshmen enrollment; yet the same cannot be said about public two-year institutions’ enrollment of 19- to 20-year-olds. Although there was a 1.1 percent increase in this freshmen age group, public and private four-year institutions’ enrollment increase was greater with 6.5 and 4.9 percent respectively. In terms of freshmen older than 25, we can see that enrollment did increase for community colleges in Fall 2024, yet not at the same magnitude as the 26 percent increase in private nonprofit four-year institutions. Regardless, as the 3.2 figures titled Freshman Enrollment at Public PAB Institutions for all Students by Age and Freshman Enrollment at Public 2-year Institutions for all Students by Age indicate, the percent increase in community college freshmen enrollment rates are higher for freshmen 21 and older than for 18-year-olds.

Who do Community Colleges Serve?

It is common knowledge that community colleges are open access institutions from which one can pursue an affordable higher education. NSCRC reports that for Fall 2024 community colleges serving the highest share of Pell Grant recipients saw the largest growth of 8.6 percent. A growth that is twice that of community colleges serving the lowest share of Pell Grant recipients. In other words, community colleges are serving more low-income students who are Pell grant recipients.

Meanwhile, while not the biggest population they serve, public four-year institutions serving the highest share of Pell grant recipients consistently have higher enrollment numbers than community colleges serving the same population. Furthermore, community colleges serving the share of Pell grant recipients that fall into the medium Pell serving category consistently have higher enrollment numbers than their public four-year counterparts. As figures 4.5 demonstrate, medium Pell serving community colleges serve more undergraduate students than medium Pell serving public four-year institutions.  

Yet, when specifically looking at freshmen enrollment, high and medium Pell-serving community colleges consistently enroll more freshmen than high and medium Pell serving four-year public institutions. An explanation for high Pell-community colleges serving more freshmen than public four-year institutions but not serving more overall undergraduates in the same population most likely lies in the increasing transfer rates of students in two-year programs. Thus, Pell grant recipient community college freshmen become undergraduates of four-year institutions.

Undergraduate Certificate Programs

As NSCRC reports, undergraduate certificate program enrollment has increased each year for the last four years. Moreover, two-year institutions are leading with enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs. To put this into perspective, out of all institution types, two-year institutions enrolled 56 percent of the undergraduates seeking certificate programs while public four-year institutions hold 8 percent of this type of enrollment for Fall 2024, coming in second for enrolling the most in undergraduate certificate programs. This fact aligns with our understanding that certificate programing is not generally sought after in four-year institutions. Meanwhile, as figure 1.3 indicates, enrollment growth for these programs at two-year institutions has seen a steady increase, with Fall 2024 showing the highest increase since Fall 2021.

This finding is unsurprising as community colleges are known for offering affordable, flexible, diverse, and innovative programming that is responsive to the needs of their students. Furthermore, certificate programs lower the bar of entry to career pathways at an affordable cost, which explains their consistent growth since 2021, a likely response to economic uncertainly linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Main Takeaways

When it comes to community colleges, here are the main takeaways from NSCRC’s report.

1.     For Fall 2024, community colleges did have a notable enrollment increase of nearly 6 percent, gains that were not achieved by their public four-year and private nonprofit four-year counterparts.

2.     Public two-year institutions and PABs started seeing enrollment increases in 2022, a year before four-year public and nonprofit privates experienced their own enrollment growth. A portion of this post-pandemic recovery can be attributed to part-time enrollment at community colleges, which saw an increase starting in Fall 2022, whereas full-time programs saw their increases start in Fall 2023.

3.     Community colleges did signal stronger freshmen enrollment compared to public and private nonprofit four-year institutions, but this reality varies by age group. Community colleges did outperform in enrollment increases of 18-year-old freshmen; yet enrollment increases for freshmen 21 and older are higher than for 18-year-olds.

4.     Medium Pell-serving community colleges serve more undergraduate students than medium Pell-serving public four-year institutions while high Pell-serving public four-year institutions serve more undergraduates than high Pell-serving community colleges.

5.     Two-year institutions are the main enrollers of students seeking undergraduate certificate programs with a steady enrollment growth since Fall 2021.

Overall, the results of NSCRC’s report sustains the conclusions that already exist about community colleges, which are that they serve a clientele who needs flexible and affordable programming as evidenced by their increasing enrollment in part-time and certificate programing; they are institutions which students in the United States rely upon during economic uncertainty, explaining how these institutions are the first to see enrollment increases after the COVID-19 pandemic; and they are an attractive option for 18-year old freshmen, whose Fall 2024 community college enrollment increase outpaced that of other institution types. Clearly consumer choice has indicated that community colleges are compatible and responsive to the needs of the public making them vital institutions in American society.      

[1] For the purpose of this piece, community college is to be understood as a collective term which encompasses both two-year institutions and Primarily Associate–Degree Granting Baccalaureate (PAB) institutions. This term is congruent with the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s use of community college.

Génesis Santiago is the Senior Government Relations Associate at ACCT

Photo Credit: Priscilla Du Preez, https://unsplash.com/@priscilladupreez